UK AI minister admits £400bn AI economic boost figure came from a Google-commissioned 2023 report; government estimate is £55-140bn by 2030 (central £120bn)

In a parliamentary answer, UK AI minister Kanishka Narayan disclosed that the £400bn AI economic benefit figure, which the government has used for almost two years, came from a 2023 report commissioned by Google and written by Public First (now PF Global). He also gave a newer government estimate of £55bn to £140bn by 2030, with a central figure of £120bn, which he called "hugely uncertain". The answer did not withdraw the £400bn figure or say it was wrong. No policy, rule or spending changed as a result.

The government's own current estimate is roughly a third of the headline number it had been promoting, even at the top of its range (£140bn). That matters to anyone using the £400bn figure in business cases, lobbying or policy submissions, and to MPs and regulators weighing how much to rely on industry-funded economics. The practical effect is mainly on credibility and scrutiny, not on any decision already made. It is also a reminder to check who paid for a headline number before repeating it.

The headline framing that the figure "mainly came from Google" is sharper than the evidence: Google commissioned the report, but that does not by itself show the analysis was wrong or rigged, and the answer did not say so. The two numbers also may not be like for like (different dates, scope and methods), so the gap is not proof of deliberate inflation. Critics' claims of hype and opacity are opinion, and nothing here shows policy was actually built on the £400bn figure.

1. 01Whether ministers or departments stop using the £400bn figure in official documents, speeches and press releases, or keep repeating it, over the next few months.
2. 02Publication of the methodology and assumptions behind the £55bn to £140bn estimate, and whether it is independently reviewed (for example by the Ada Lovelace Institute, the OBR or parliamentary committees).
3. 03Follow-up parliamentary questions or committee scrutiny, including any response from Google or PF Global on how the 2023 report's figure was calculated and presented.