Nebius outlines $40-45 billion 2027 capex plan, cuts 2026 revenue forecast to $3 billion amid delays at Microsoft-contracted New Jersey site

On its Q3 call, Nebius said it plans $40-45 billion of capex in 2027, with up to 85% funded by customer prepayments and asset-backed financing tied to investment-grade contracts (Microsoft, Meta). Q3 revenue was $981 million (up 571% year on year, about a third of it one-off), and cash stood at $7.4 billion. It cut its 2026 revenue forecast by $200 million to $3 billion, because only about half of the Microsoft capacity (contract worth up to $19.4 billion) at Vineland, New Jersey will be delivered by year-end. The rest slips to Q2 2027 after operator DataOne wound down temporary gas generation faster than expected. Nebius guides to $12-13 billion of 2027 revenue and pre-tax breakeven by Q4 2027. Shares fell 17%.

Nebius's model depends on delivering capacity on time, because its financing is secured against customer contracts. A six-month slip on its largest contract delays revenue and tests the 2027 targets, which need a roughly fourfold jump in revenue. Investors in Nebius and similar neoclouds (Nscale, IREN) should expect more scrutiny of delivery schedules and power sourcing. Customers such as Microsoft gain leverage over smaller providers. The immediate effect is limited to one site and a $200 million forecast cut, so it is a warning about execution risk, not proof the model is broken.

The "playbook under test" framing is the article's interpretation, not a finding. The report that Microsoft is cooling on neocloud deals relies on unnamed sources and is not confirmed by Microsoft. The 571% growth figure flatters the picture, as it comes off a small base and includes one-off revenue. The 2027 capex and revenue figures are management ambitions, not commitments. The "up to 85%" funding share is a ceiling, not a secured amount.

1. 01Whether the Vineland site reaches its roughly half-capacity delivery by year-end, and whether the remainder arrives by Q2 2027 as now stated.
2. 02How much of the $40-45 billion 2027 capex is actually secured: prepayment and asset-backed financing closings, and their terms and interest costs.
3. 03Any Microsoft or Meta statement or contract change on neocloud commitments, and whether Nebius's Q4 results show further forecast cuts or slipping delivery dates.